Cheshire County Council is reacting to a forecast shortage of school pupil numbers in the region with an initiative known as Transforming Learning Communities (TLC). The scheme which has proposed the closure and amalgamation of some schools has met with controversy. ROB DEVEY reports on the latest meeting this week.

PARENTS at closure-threatened Dunham Hill Primary fear plans to re-locate their children to a neighbouring school could be doomed to failure.

Cheshire County Council claims falling birth rates and surplus places mean Dunham Hill must close in 2008, with its 37 pupils moving en-masse to Horn's Mill Primary School in Helsby.

But estimates of pupil numbers obtained by The Chronicle following a Freedom of Information Act application, have reinforced parents' fears there will not be room for their children at Horn's Mill.

The school's estimate that it would have 145 pupils in January 2006 has proved to be way off the mark.

It actually has 167 pupils, just 14 short of a capacity of 180 which could rise to 210 if a classroom currently allocated as a community facility comes back into use.

Parents fear the discrepancy means predictions that the school will have 143 pupils in January 2007 and 144 in January 2008 could be off the mark.

The county council has conceded that there may be discrepancies in the original forecast figures.

The school estimates do not take account of families who could move into 103 homes currently being built on Helsby's former BICC site, or 34 apartments which are also proposed.

The county estimates 25 children could move into those homes, predicting that 12 potential pupils might attend Horn's Mill.

Figures for Elton Primary School have also been higher than expected.

In January 2006 there were 41 pupils in the school's reception year, with 232 pupils on the school roll.

The estimates were for 25 and 209 pupils, with the school's capacity 300.

There are no surplus places at Helsby Hillside Primary School.

Parent governor, Steve Boxall, said: 'We have been warning there will not be enough space at Horn's Mill all along and these figures seem to prove the point.

'But the council is giving the impression it's made up its mind and it could be too late for the school.'

At a fiery public meeting at Dunham Hill this week, which kick-started a six-week consultation period, grandparent, John Daniels, asked: 'Why waste money closing this place only to have to build two or three more classrooms the same size at Horn's Mill?'

We could cope, says headmaster

HORN'S Mill head, Anne Doughton, said she was confident the school would be able to cope with any influx, but confirmed her estimates had not taken account of housing developments.

'We tend to underestimate if anything -because over-estimates lead to the council clawing back money from us,' she said.

'At the moment Year One is full but there are spare places in the other year groups. We work on the basis of things like names put down by parents and work closely with our pre-school playgroup,' she said.

'But it's not an exact science because children can move into the area and there's a lot of social mobility.

'I have no idea how the new housing developments will affect us.'

The school estimates are also being used to justify the closures of Frodsham High School. They prompted governors at primary schools Kingsley St John's and Norley, and Manley and Alvanley, to agree to federate, which will mean shared staff and governors.

The council says it cannot use birth-rate figures because families may leave an area between birth and school entry and may not always choose their nearest school.

Across Frodsham, Helsby and Kingsley, births have fallen slightly.