REWIND to only three months ago and sample the air around Goodison Park. It was saturated heavily with optimism, and most of it centred on how this Everton squad was capable of breaking up the cartel known by many as Sky’s Top Four, for the second time under the management of David Moyes.

The problem with an air of optimism is that ugly old reality has a nasty habit of clogging it up and turning it into clouds of gloom.

So here we are now with the leaves turning brown, on the day of a difficult fixture at St Andrews, and it becomes increasingly difficult to avoid the growing elephant in the room.

With only three points from a potential 18 available so far, and no victories, have Everton already dropped out of the race for Champions League qualification?

Most observers gave them little chance of breaking into the top four again before a ball was kicked anyway – the financial constraints were too tight, the traditional top four too strong, they said.

But these were the same pundits who had to simply applaud when Moyes dragged a team containing honest professionals like Kevin Kilbane and Marcus Bent to the brink of the Champions League group stages in 2005.

This summer Evertonians sensed something special could happen.

A cursory glance at what it has taken to finish fourth recently does not offer much consolation.

Last season Harry Redknapp’s Spurs clinched fourth with 70 points, Everton falling nine points behind them despite a late surge in form that would have been top three material if it had started far earlier than January.

Everton have never notched up 70 points in the Premier League.

The reason why Everton were so handicapped in the race for European qualification last season was simple – a slow start.

Now, for whatever reason, it has happened again and the Blues are already playing catch up.

But there are different ways to interpret the omens. If anything offers hope, it is the 2008/09 season, when Everton won only two of their first 12 competitive games and yet recovered sufficiently – sparked by that biting Phil Neville tackle on Cristiano Ronaldo at Goodison – to finish fifth and reach the FA Cup final.

So, if perhaps fourth place is becoming more implausible, surely the Blues would relish a top five finish and another trip to Wembley?

Even the chances of lifting some domestic silverware were halved after that abject Tuesday night in Brentford 11 days ago when a poor start to the campaign got even worse.

It is going to take a recovery of astounding proportions to finish fourth – but it will also take two achievable elements.

First Phil Jagielka and either Sylvain Distin or John Heitinga need to forge a defensive partnership as cast-iron and reliable as the old-guard Alan Stubbs and David Weir who conceded just 46 goals in the 2004/05 season.

But more importantly (and conversely when you think of this summer’s declaration of the strongest squad ever), David Moyes could do with the clarity of selection he had when he guided the Blues to fourth.

That season, Moyes was able to send out largely the same unchanged 11 most games.

It is perhaps no coincidence that as he struggles to nail down his perfect blend for this campaign, it has been tough to echo the fluency of that side.

Nobody in their right mind would want the Toffees to revert to the style of football from 2005, but some traits of that squad would be helpful where they to re-emerge.

The nay-sayers and doom-mongers who insist fourth place is out of the question already may have jumped the gun, but those predictions will seem sadly true if the current malaise lasts beyond the Merseyside derby.

Yes, Everton are only eight points behind currently fourth placed Manchester City, but Mancini’s side have already played Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool. Those tests seem even tougher when you glance at the opponents who have hurt the Blues already.